Radio Silence

No, nothing is wrong.

I had a nice Thanksgiving, went on a five-day trip to look at an investment, and began talking to people about some consulting and start-up business ideas.

It seems like I’m the teenager that never gets called for a date, and then suddenly gets calls from all cool kids.

Two of the things I’m discussing would probably end my blogging, but neither would come to fruition until the new year.  Before that happens, I would post my favorite chapter from my manuscript of “Mortgage Market Mayhem.”  I think it will help people understand what financial engineering is when it works properly and serves all parties with appropriate benefits.

I do have some thoughts about the recent round of policy prescriptions, and all I can say is that the “professional” economists hired by the stock touting media come out looking pretty bad.

But I think we all know that economists exist to make weather forecasters look good.



6 Responses to Radio Silence

  1. Judy Sabin says:

    Looking forward to hearing more from you. You’ve been missed.

  2. jill says:

    Seems that Janet Tavakoli put on quite a slide show at the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Supervision Summit in Washington D.C.:

  3. Tom D says:

    J. K. Galbraith had another comparison: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

    Some uncharitable observers think the same of market forecasting.

    Have you had a chance to look at cmREIT-in-the-making Starwood Properties, STWD? They have been and will be going to the trough twice, once for some more 2-3 year financing and once more for another large equity issue. They have recently taken over much of the ex-Corus Bank holdings of FDIC with some partners and are on the march. Brilliant forecasters at STWD or too much too soon?

    • hhill51 says:

      No, I haven’t. Not a fan of that management team, so I would wait for confirmation from performance to care.
      I know we made a ton of money buying loans and securitizing during the RTC era, so even competitive bidding can be very profitable when the taxpayer has already taken a loss. The Corus Bank holdings may well be a terrific bargain. In fact, they probably are. If we do get 3% or higher GDP, then well-bought commercial mortgage paper will probably recover and pay in full (or alternatively be attractive to restructure with lower balances).
      Having said that, I’ll be holding most of my mREIT exposure in agency mREITs.

  4. maxx says:

    Another blog on amreits would be great. 10 year rates rising seems to have wiped out all BV gains on amreits but spreads should be higher and locked in with hedges for a few years. Which amreits do you like at this point?


  5. Robin says:

    Congratulations on those calls and offers. I’ve enjoyed your blog and hope everything works out well for you!

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