Barry’s Back – Still Skeptical

Premise for market advance questioned

The market is roaring ahead today, the initial cause at least, the report by Reuters that Chinese exports will be reported tomorrow night at plus 50% year over year. This report at the present time is uncorroborated.

The report is totally at odds with prior history. In fact May exports are historically down seasonally, possibly having to do with the May festival. Imports are also historically down in May.

Such a large increase is not consistent with what we know about the economies of the developed countries that would be on the receiving end of these exports.

An updated report by Reuters qualifies the story with “if confirmed” and a Bloomberg update makes it clear this is a hearsay account. I have serious reservations this story will be confirmed.

In the absence of any corroboration the probability of this report by unnamed sources not proving to be accurate is unusually high. Adjust your investment stance accordingly.



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