Yellen’s Calendar Quandary

March 14, 2016

Making the Case for a Surprise Rate Hike

An article in Bloomberg caught my eye this weekend. The headline was “Bond Traders Give Fed Green Light to Lift Rates as Soon as June.” Accompanying the article were several interesting Bloomberg Professional® graphs and pages. For me, the following one really stood out.

bberg hike odds

The way to read the chart is to recognize that the body (right hand side) of the display is the bond market’s expectation, calculated from the price of Fed Funds interest rate futures and options over the coming year. Read the rest of this entry »


Ice Dams and Slo-Mo Promo

March 20, 2015

After several weeks of chipping roof ice, emptying buckets and trash cans, and moving things out of the attic and three rooms, I can finally see the end of winter (by happenstance, just a couple of hours from now, celestially speaking).  And it’s snowing.

Saving my “stuff” and the house from the depredation of water coming in took priority these last couple of weeks.

I did get to spend part of two days giving an interview to an industry publication called “National Mortgage News.”  The reporter, Bonnie Sinnock, has been on the mortgage “beat” for nearly twenty years, so it was a pleasure to speak with her.  She also read all of Finance Monsters before the interview….

Like others who read it and know the people, Bonnie said she laughed out loud at some of the incidents that show readers how the Finance Monsters think and behave.

Read the rest of this entry »

Snowbound Reading

January 26, 2015

I got an email today from a friend that I hadn’t heard from in about a year.  Even though we both live in the same state, it seems like arranging the hour+ drive each way doesn’t happen too often these days, for either of us.

He was congratulating me on publishing Finance Monsters, and letting me know that he downloaded it this morning to have some reading during the blizzard that is now getting its act together to bury us in snow.  I’ve also been preparing for the likely two or three days of isolation, and I realized that none of the “emergency” kits suggest some reading.  Plenty of people are encouraged to get more batteries for their junk drawers, gallons of water, full tanks in their cars, etc., but nobody seems to consider stimulating their minds as a necessity they might want to do, even without power.

Like the guy with the bumper stickers that read “Eat More Kale” who won when defending himself against Chik-Fil-A, I think the time has come for bumper stickers that say “Read More Books.”

take care,


I’ve Seen This Movie Before

January 21, 2015

When a financial market sector is doing well on Wall Street, you can be sure that it will get exploited until it breaks.

One of the ways this happens is through “ratings shopping.”  If one rating agency holds tougher standards, the dealers will go to the others.  If the product is wanted by enough buyers, the credit and disclosure standards begin to slip for the whole market. Lenders, rating agencies or investors who insist on higher standards are basically forced out of business.

In Finance Monsters, I did give the Rating Agencies a partial defense for their ratings on subprime bonds, but the news this week is indefensible. Today the SEC announced a settlement with Standard & Poor’s regarding their ratings on CMBS (Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities) in 2011. They will be paying $77 million to the SEC and two state Attorneys General, and will also be suspended from rating the largest part of the CMBS market for a year.

2011?  Are you kidding me? By my recollection, in 2011 the “peasants” were still outside the doors of the Rating Agencies with pitchforks and torches, calling for blood after the global financial crisis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Render Unto Caesar’s, but Where?

January 18, 2015

And to Whom?

$26.9 billion in CDS muddy the waters in Caesar’s Casino’s $18.4 billion in debt restructuring.

With two main classes of debt, the senior bondholders have agreed to terms and filed Chapter 11 together with the private equity owners of the company in bankruptcy court in Chicago. But holders of the junior debt are suing, and also filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but in Delaware.

And then there’s the Credit Default Swap (CDS) position, roughly one and a half times the size of the debt issues.

The junior debt holders didn’t get their interest payment in December, a deferral the company points out is allowed in the subordinated bond offering documents. Still, the holders of the much larger CDS position went to the International Swap Dealers’ Association (ISDA) to ask for a payoff. In the parlance of the Association, they wanted the missed payment declared a “credit event.” Read the rest of this entry »

Does Santa Take Side Bets?

December 21, 2014

Coal in some stockings, treats in others, but who’s been naughty and who’s been nice? In the world of big-time financial side bets (Credit Default Swaps), it isn’t exactly clear.

When I heard about the unusual happenings that kept Radio Shack open for at least one more Christmas season, my thoughts went to the decision process for the traders on each side of a massive CDS trade. Making money is the primary reason they play, but there is something else going on.

Senior people on Wall Street have their own version of Black Friday – the day after Thanksgiving that some retailers need to push their full year into the black. It’s not the same day at every Street firm or hedge fund, but it’s just as manic as the mall scenes with people trampling each other to get enormous televisions. On one day each year, everybody gets their “number” – their bonus for the year.

This year, as every year, people are trying their best to book big profits while the bosses are deciding who gets how much of the bonus pool.

From the glossary of Finance Monsters, here’s the definition of the Bonus Pool:  Read the rest of this entry »

Lowering Threat Level to Orange

December 18, 2014

That doesn’t mean we can’t have a crisis, but the threat is less than it might be.

There’s been quite a reaction to the posts from two weeks ago about the potential that our next financial meltdown might be quietly germinating in the dark recesses of the credit derivative market, and rightly so. There are still people linking to the second in the series today.

After the break, I’ll follow some clues we can look at to see whether another mega-mushroom of risk is growing in the dark basement of finance, the way it was in Finance Monsters…. Read the rest of this entry »