Support For Gloom and Doom

July 27, 2010

When you take a position that spreads gloom and doom is that different than being a gloom and doomer? Perhaps, though the difference may be just how long you’ve been on that team. Another defining factor may be the zeal you have for your stated position.

Bright as they are, it would be fair to call Roubini and Rosenberg gloom and doomers. I’m beginning to feel I may be leaving the land of the “objective” and going over to the dark side with them. Admittedly I’ve been on ECRIs case for a while. I intend to stay there. But its not just me with ECRI.

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mREIT Q2 2010 Preview

July 27, 2010

A friend forwarded one of the bulge bracket dealer reviews of the quarter just completed.  It was fairly upbeat, with a couple of earnings estimates increased (NLY and IVR).

Perhaps most interesting to me was the big divergence from other analysts’ estimates of quarter-end book values.

In my conversation with the institutional fund manager friend, we both thought the recent Annaly capital raise was dilutive to book value, and this analyst agrees.  In fact, he estimates their Q2 end-of-quarter book value at $18.87, a definite good news / bad news situation.

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